Weekly market analysis for Greater Phoenix Metro home sellers and buyers
Updated: September 15, 2026 — Data from MLS, Zillow, FRED & Case-ShillerThe official Phoenix REALTORS report for August 2026, released September 11, is the most important data drop of the quarter — and it describes a market where sellers and buyers have quietly swapped places at the negotiating table. Maricopa County closed 3,568 homes in August, down 4.9% year over year, the first annual decline in closings this year. New listings fell 8.5% to 4,724, and pending sales dropped 34.2% to 2,602 — the third consecutive month of 30%-plus pending declines. That is no longer a blip; it is the defining feature of this market. The county median sale price came in flat year over year at $499,990 on an all-property-types basis, though the cleaner resale picture across Zillow, Redfin and Cromford clusters nearer $462,000. Months of supply held at 3.6, unchanged from last August, and the typical seller still collected 98.1% of asking price — actually up a tenth of a point year over year. Those two numbers are the reason this is a story about rebalancing rather than decline. The sharper signal comes from the broader metro: ARMLS data for August put Greater Phoenix months of supply at 4.28, crossing the four-month line that separates a seller-leaning market from a balanced one for the first time in roughly a year. Maricopa County proper has not crossed it — but the metro around it has, and that gap tells you where the pressure is coming from. Mortgage rates remain the binding constraint, holding in the high-6% range through mid-September with Arizona 30-year quotes spanning roughly 6.6% to 7.0% depending on lender and points. For sellers right now, the practical read is this: your buyer pool is smaller than it was in spring, but the buyers still in it are closing at 98 cents on the dollar and inventory has not flooded. Sellers who price to August comps, present well, and move before the pending-sales drought works through to autumn closings will still transact near full ask. Sellers who price to spring 2026 hope will join the growing share of listings that cut and cut again. This report is updated on the 15th of each month.
Maricopa County Market Snapshot — Key Performance Indicators
Phoenix Metro Median Home Sale Price — Historical Trend (2023–2026)
Tracking how long it takes to sell a house in Phoenix starts with understanding where prices have been — and where they’re heading.
Maricopa County Housing Supply vs. Demand — Who Controls the Market?
Understanding the balance between available homes and active buyers is essential for pricing strategy in the current Maricopa County real estate market.
This is where August got genuinely interesting, and where two credible sources disagree in a way worth understanding. Phoenix REALTORS put Maricopa County at 3.6 months of supply in August — exactly unchanged from August 2025. ARMLS data for the same month put Greater Phoenix at 4.28 months, which crossed the four-month threshold that conventionally separates a seller-leaning market from a balanced one, and did so for the first time in about a year. Both figures are right; they measure different footprints. Maricopa County proper is holding at balanced-but-firm, while the wider metro — which pulls in Pinal County and the outer growth corridors where builders are still delivering — has tipped over the line. If your home is in Chandler or Gilbert, the 3.6 is your number. If it is in San Tan Valley or the far West Valley, the 4.28 is closer to your reality. A note on the inventory tile above: it now reads 20,462, drawn from Zillow’s all-property-types count for Maricopa County through August 31. Prior editions of this page carried a lower figure sourced from a single-family-only series that has since stopped refreshing. The change in the number is a change in what is being counted, not a sudden flood of new listings — Cromford-derived data has active inventory up just 0.5% year over year. Demand is the real story. Pending sales fell 34.2% year over year in August to 2,602, following declines of roughly 35% in July and 30% in June. Pending sales are the pipeline that becomes September and October closings, so three consecutive months of 30%-plus declines mean autumn closing volume will be visibly softer than summer’s. August closings already registered the first annual drop of the year at 3,568, down 4.9%. The offsetting fact, and it is a real one: new listings fell 8.5% to 4,724. Sellers are pulling back roughly in step with buyers, which is precisely why months of supply has not blown out. Phoenix REALTORS’ Butch Glassman made the point plainly — more than 8,000 homes were under contract or closed during August, over a third of standing inventory, and all of it has to be replaced with new listings. For sellers: the shrinking buyer pool is real, but so is the shrinking competition. Fewer rivals on the market is the single most underrated advantage available to a well-prepared seller this autumn.
S&P Case-Shiller Phoenix Home Price Index — The Real Long-Term Picture
| Month | Index Value | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 322.74 | -0.4% |
| May 2026 | 324.02 | -0.2% |
| April 2026 | 324.75 | -0.6% |
| March 2026 | 326.72 | -0.3% |
| February 2026 | 327.64 | -0.6% |
| January 2026 | 329.70 | +0.6% |
| December 2025 | 327.72 | +0.4% |
| November 2025 | 326.39 | +0.5% |
| October 2025 | 324.87 | +0.4% |
| September 2025 | 323.53 | +0.4% |
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Phoenix index is unchanged at 322.74 for June 2026, the most recent reading available. The July figure is due at the end of September, so this page will carry June for one more cycle. June marked the sixth consecutive monthly decline from the January 2026 peak of 329.70 — a cumulative slide of 6.96 points, or roughly 2.1%. The full 2026 path: January 329.70, February 327.64, March 326.72, April 324.75, May 324.02, June 322.74. Two things are true about that series at once, and sellers deserve both. The first is that a six-month decline is not noise; Phoenix has not strung together a run like this since the 2022 correction, and it reflects genuine softening in repeat-sale values. The second is that Case-Shiller is a rearview mirror. It is a three-month weighted average reported with a two-month lag, so the June print largely describes what closed in April and May — the stretch when inventory was near its 24,000 peak and buyer traffic was at its summer low. It does not yet contain the August data this report is built on. The July and August readings, landing late September and late October, will be the first to reflect the 98.1% sale-to-list ratio and the flat 3.6-month supply that Phoenix REALTORS just documented. Given how tightly the median has held since May, a flattening in the index is a reasonable expectation; a sharp rebound is not, because the pending-sales collapse will feed weaker closing volume into exactly those months. For a seller deciding what to do in the next sixty days, the practical translation is that the index is describing a market you have already moved past, and waiting for it to turn green before listing means waiting until well into 2027. At 322.74 the index still sits comfortably above where it was two years ago. The equity is there. The question is only whether you price to capture it.
Home Values by City — Maricopa County, AZ (2026)
City-level data matters when selling — Maricopa County averages can mask significant neighborhood-level variation. Whether you’re tracking Mesa home values in 2026, Gilbert home values in 2026, or the Chandler real estate market, the numbers below tell a more granular story.
Scottsdale ↑ +2.9%
Luxury anchor; strongest YoY gain in the county
Gilbert ↓ -0.3%
Premium family market; essentially flat year over year
Litchfield Park —
Upscale West Valley enclave
Chandler ↓ -1.3%
Intel corridor; fastest absorption in the East Valley
Waddell —
Rural-edge West Valley growth pocket
Tempe ↓ -0.6%
ASU rental demand keeps this market liquid
Goodyear —
West Valley new-construction hub
Mesa ↓ -0.9%
East Valley value tier; Eastmark and Cadence drive volume
Phoenix (City) ↓ -1.8%
Deepest inventory in the metro; most buyer leverage
Avondale —
Entry-level West Valley commuter market
Buckeye —
Far-West growth corridor; heavy new-build competition
Tolleson —
Small West Valley market near the I-10 corridor
Apache Junction ↓ -2.1%
Far-East Valley value play; softest YoY in the group
El Mirage —
Most affordable entry point in Maricopa County
The Phoenix REALTORS August report carried city-level detail that reframes a narrative this page ran earlier in the summer, and the correction is worth stating directly. Scottsdale’s August median sale price came in at $1.149 million, up 12.9% year over year, on 278 closings. Active Scottsdale inventory fell 10% to 1,156 homes and months of supply tightened to 3.2, down 17.9% year over year — the tightest major submarket in the county. Earlier coverage, including the Axios ZIP-level analysis in August, highlighted Scottsdale asking prices falling more than 25% in 85251 and 85258 and framed it as a luxury correction. The closed-transaction data does not support that framing. Sellers cut aspirational list prices while what actually sold went up nearly 13%. Listing prices and clearing prices are different animals, and in Scottsdale right now they are moving in opposite directions. Zillow’s home value index for Scottsdale reads $851,107, up 2.9% year over year — the only city in the county posting a meaningful ZHVI gain, and a reminder that ZHVI and median sale price measure different things. The value cards above now carry Zillow ZHVI consistently through August 31 for all fourteen cities. Phoenix proper is the softest large market: median sale price down 2.6% to $460,000, closings off 10% to 726, pending sales down 40.1%, and active listings up 3% to 2,926 — the only major city where inventory grew. Its 3.6-month supply is up 5.9% year over year. Phoenix city is where buyers have the most leverage and where pricing discipline matters most. The East Valley core remains the county’s healthiest tier on absorption: Chandler at $515,351 ZHVI with homes going pending in about 29 days, Mesa at $429,657 at 29 days, Gilbert at $566,873 at 31 days, Tempe at $461,342 at 32 days. Those pending windows are less than half Scottsdale’s 56 days and Queen Creek’s 61. Speed of absorption, not price level, is the metric that tells a seller how forgiving their submarket will be. Apache Junction at $370,360, down 2.1%, is the softest in the group, and El Mirage at $341,412 remains the county’s affordable entry point.
Pinal County Real Estate Market — Queen Creek & San Tan Valley
Queen Creek and San Tan Valley straddle the Maricopa/Pinal county line but function as integral parts of the Greater Phoenix Metro housing market. Both communities follow broader Phoenix market trends while maintaining their own micro-dynamics driven by new construction activity, proximity to the Chandler tech corridor, Mesa Gateway Airport, and the expanding Southeast Valley freeway network. Notably, San Tan Valley is set to officially incorporate in July 2026 — a significant milestone that could influence property values, local governance, and community investment in the years ahead. If you’re tracking Queen Creek home values or San Tan Valley real estate trends, here’s where the market stands.
Queen Creek
San Tan Valley
Queen Creek and San Tan Valley continue to function as one market that happens to straddle the Maricopa-Pinal county line, and both are now firmly on the looser side of the metro. Queen Creek’s Zillow home value index reads $627,355 through August 31, up a statistically meaningless 0.1% year over year, with homes going pending in about 61 days — the slowest absorption of any city tracked on this page and roughly double the East Valley core. That pace is the tell. Queen Creek is where the metro’s new-construction pipeline is most concentrated, and resale sellers there are not just competing with each other; they are competing with builders who can buy down a buyer’s rate, cover closing costs, and finish a home to order. Reporting from Redfin’s final published month showed 40% of Queen Creek listings taking a price cut, the highest share among the markets reviewed here. San Tan Valley sits below it on price and behaves the same way, with the SR-24 corridor still absorbing steady new supply. The ARMLS Greater Phoenix reading of 4.28 months of supply for August is a better description of conditions here than the 3.6 months Phoenix REALTORS reported for Maricopa County — this is precisely the kind of outer-corridor market that pushes the metro figure above the county figure. For sellers in either community, the honest strategy is to stop pricing against the Gilbert or Chandler comps a few miles west and start pricing against the builder incentive package down the road. Expect to contribute toward closing costs or a rate buy-down, expect a 60-day-plus marketing window, and treat condition and move-in readiness as your real competitive edge, because on price and financing the builder will usually win.
Maricopa County Rental Market — What It Means for Home Sellers
For owners weighing a sale against converting to a rental, the arithmetic has shifted in a way worth running before you decide. Maricopa County’s median rent sits near $1,750 a month against a Zillow home value index of $456,252 — a gross yield around 4.6% before taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy or management. Rents have been flat to modestly negative across the metro while home values eased about 1.0% year over year, so the rent-to-value ratio has not improved enough to rescue a marginal hold decision. Meanwhile the financing side has gotten harder, not easier: Arizona 30-year quotes ran roughly 6.6% to 7.0% through mid-September depending on lender and points, which means anyone counting on a refinance to make the rental math work is still waiting, and has been waiting for two years. The case for holding is strongest if you carry a sub-4% mortgage from the 2020-2021 window, because that spread is genuinely difficult to replace and effectively subsidizes the hold. The case for selling is strongest if you would be converting a home you no longer live in, carrying a rate above 6%, in one of the softer absorption markets — Queen Creek at 61 days to pending, Apache Junction at 42, Buckeye at 40 — where both your resale exit and your tenant pool are thinner than the East Valley core. One factor that is easy to overlook: the same 34.2% drop in pending sales that is thinning the buyer pool is also a signal about would-be buyers who are renting instead, which supports rental demand at the margin. That is a real tailwind for landlords, but it is a thin one against a 4.6% gross yield and 7% replacement financing. Run your actual numbers on your actual rate before treating a rental conversion as the safe default — for most owners in this market, it is the more leveraged bet, not the more conservative one.
Key Market Indicators — Maricopa County Real Estate Summary
The complete snapshot of where the market stands today, compared to one year ago. This table is the quickest way to gauge the health of the Maricopa County real estate market in 2026.
| Indicator | Current | 1 Year Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $460,000 | $479,000 | ↓ 4.0% |
| Active Listings | 18,806 | 18,421 | ↑ 2.1% |
| Months of Supply | 4.2 months | 3.9 months | ↑ 7.7% |
| Days on Market | 78 days | 72 days | ↑ 8.3% |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 98.3% | 98.6% | ↓ slight |
| Affordability Index | 77 | 71 | ↑ improving |
| Case-Shiller Index | 328.80 | ~320 | ↑ 2.7% |
| Avg Rent (Maricopa) | $1,720/mo | $1,732/mo | ↓ 0.7% |
| Median List Price | $508,300 | — | — |
| % Homes Sold Under List | 66.3% | ~60% | ↑ |
Advice for Home Buyers in the Greater Phoenix Market
The Buyer’s Window Is Open
Right now, buyers have the most leverage in the Phoenix real estate market since 2019. With 18,806 active listings, prices down 4% year-over-year, and homes sitting a median of 78 days on market, the dynamics have shifted decisively in your favor. That means you can negotiate on price, request repairs, ask for closing cost concessions, and take time to make a thoughtful decision — without the fear of losing the deal to 15 other competing bidders. The frenzied, multiple-offer market of 2021-2022 is over. Today’s market is rational and methodical. Sellers who are priced correctly will sell, but they’ll sell to buyers who negotiate firmly and fairly. This is the environment where patient, prepared buyers get the best long-term deals.
What to Look For — Finding Motivated Sellers
Not all listings are created equal in this market. Some sellers remain anchored to 2022 or 2025 peak prices — those homes will sit for months and eventually undergo price reductions. The smartest buyer strategy is to target homes that have been on market for 45 or more days and have already undergone at least one price reduction. Sellers at that stage are genuinely motivated and much more negotiable on price, closing costs, and contract terms. Pay close attention to the sale-to-list ratio in your target neighborhoods — it tells you how much room there is to negotiate. A neighborhood where the ratio is 96-97% means sellers are routinely accepting 3-4% below asking. Combine that with a home that’s been sitting, and you have real leverage to secure a strong deal.
Don’t Wait for the Perfect Bottom
Trying to time the absolute bottom of any real estate market is a fool’s errand — even professional investors can’t do it consistently. The Case-Shiller data shows steady monthly price increases through late 2025 (322 to 328), suggesting the market may already be establishing its floor. More importantly, if mortgage rates dip below 6.5%, sidelined buyers will re-enter the market fast — and competition will return before prices adjust upward. History shows that buyers who wait for the “perfect” moment miss the window entirely and end up buying later at higher prices with more competition. The best time to buy a home is when you can afford it and the market conditions favor you. Right now, by every metric available, conditions favor the buyer. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.
What the 2026 Market Means If You’re Thinking About Selling
If you’re asking “should I sell my home now in Arizona?” — the answer depends on your specific situation, equity position, and timeline. Below, we break down the four most common seller scenarios we hear every week and what the data says about each one.
My Home Is Listed and Not Selling — What’s Going On?
If your home has been on the market for weeks without a serious offer, you’re not alone — but you do need to take action. With 18,806 active listings competing for roughly 3,750 buyers closing each month in Maricopa County, overpriced homes simply get passed over. The data is unambiguous: 66.3% of homes in the Phoenix metro sell below their original list price. The countywide sale-to-list ratio sits at 98.3%, meaning the average seller is receiving 98.3 cents on every dollar they list at. That sounds close — until you realize it means sellers who price at market are doing fine, while sellers who price above market are making up the difference with price cuts, concessions, and wasted time. If your home has been listed for more than 60 days without an offer, you are almost certainly overpriced. Every additional week on market hurts your position: buyers perceive stale listings as having hidden problems, and algorithms in Zillow and Realtor.com push fresher listings higher in search results. A strategic price reduction isn’t a sign of failure — it’s a market correction that positions you to actually sell. Unbiased Options can help you analyze your competitive position and determine the right repricing strategy.
Talk to Unbiased Options about repricing strategy →I’m Thinking About Selling — Is Now the Right Time?
This is the most common question we hear from homeowners across the Greater Phoenix area, and the honest answer is: it depends on when you bought and what your goals are. Yes, home values in Maricopa County are down 4% year-over-year — the median sale price has fallen from $479,000 to $460,000. But context matters enormously. If you purchased your home before 2022, you’re still sitting on significant equity. The Phoenix metro median was around $300,000 in early 2020. Even after this correction, you’ve likely gained $100,000 or more in equity. Waiting for the market to “come back” to 2022 peaks could mean waiting 12 to 18 months — or longer — with no guarantee. Meanwhile, you’re making mortgage payments, paying insurance, covering maintenance, and your equity could erode further if the market softens. The opportunity right now is that motivated, qualified buyers are still closing at a rate of about 3,750 transactions per month. Sellers who price correctly, present their homes well, and work with experienced guidance are selling. The market rewards realistic sellers and punishes wishful thinkers. Don’t wait for perfect conditions — they may not come. Get a clear picture of your equity, your options, and your timeline.
Get a free consultation with Unbiased Options →I Need to Sell Fast — What Are My Home Selling Options in Arizona?
Speed matters for many sellers — whether you’re relocating for work, managing an inherited property, going through a divorce, or facing financial pressure. In today’s market, the traditional listing process takes a median of 78 days just to go under contract, and then you’re looking at another 30-45 days to close. That’s nearly four months from listing to cash in hand. For sellers who need certainty and speed, the traditional route may not be the best fit. That’s where exploring all your home selling options in Arizona becomes valuable. Beyond the traditional MLS listing, options include cash offers from vetted investors, iBuyer programs, lease-back arrangements, and creative structuring for unique property situations. In a market with 18,806 active listings, buyer motivation is selective — they can afford to take their time, request repairs, and negotiate aggressively. If you don’t have time for that process, you need to know what alternatives exist. Unbiased Options walks you through every available path — traditional sale, cash offer, investor purchase, or hybrid approaches — with honest, data-backed guidance. You choose the path that fits your life. No pressure, no obligation.
Explore your selling options — free consultation →What Should I Price My Home At in 2026?
Pricing is the single most important decision you’ll make when selling your home, and the market doesn’t care about three things: what you paid for the house, what you need to net from the sale, or what Zillow’s Zestimate says it’s worth. The market responds to one thing — comparable sold data from the last 60-90 days in your immediate neighborhood. Here’s the reality of the Maricopa County real estate market in 2026: 66.3% of homes are selling below their original list price. Overpriced listings don’t just sit — they actively lose money. Every week on market beyond the first three costs you in buyer perception, algorithm placement, and ultimately in final sale price. Studies consistently show that homes that undergo price reductions sell for less than homes that were priced correctly from day one. The right price for your home is the one that generates competitive interest and offers within the first two to three weeks of listing. That requires a rigorous comparative market analysis — not a Zestimate, not what your neighbor claims they sold for, not last year’s comps. It requires current, hyperlocal data. Unbiased Options provides a free, no-obligation comparative market analysis that gives you an honest assessment of what your home is worth today.
Get a free comparative market analysis →Selling Your Home in 2026? Get Your Options First.
No matter what the market is doing — whether prices are rising, falling, or holding steady — you deserve to know all your options before making one of the biggest financial decisions of your life. At Unbiased Options, we don’t just list homes. We help you understand what your home is worth TODAY, what all your options are, and which one makes the most sense for your specific situation.
Whether you need to sell fast due to a job relocation, life change, or financial pressure — or you want to maximize your sale price with a strategic traditional listing — or you’re dealing with a complicated situation like an estate, divorce, foreclosure risk, or out-of-state property — we provide honest, data-backed guidance on every available path. Traditional MLS listing, cash offer, investor purchase, hybrid approaches — we present all of them and let you decide.
Whether the market is up or down, there are always options. We help you find yours.
Free consultation. No pressure. No commitment.
Get Your Free Market ConsultationThe August 2026 price trend chart now shows eight months of 2026 YTD data on the gold line, tracing the plateau in the $455,000-$465,000 range that has defined the year. The most current official June figure from Homes.com puts the Phoenix area median sold at $457,250, up 1.6% year over year — the fifth consecutive month of positive YoY price readings. Single-family homes specifically: Phoenix metro SFH median $485,000, up 0.2% YoY per AZ Big Media. The data across sources is remarkably consistent in telling the same story: prices are flat to very slightly positive year over year, and the per-foot price improvement (+3.2% YoY per lessfeesmorevalue) suggests the product mix is improving even as the median holds flat. The Cromford Report’s August forecast introduces a new element to watch: an expected 6-8 week price softening period beginning now, followed by a recovery from October onward as luxury transactions return. That means the August and September Case-Shiller readings — which will capture closings from July and August respectively — may show a modest dip before the October-November data recovers. For sellers watching this chart: the gold line is likely to tick down slightly in August-September before recovering. Sellers who list and close in August are selling into today’s $457K median. Those who wait for October will likely see a similar or better price environment, but will face more competition from listings that also waited. The math on listing now versus listing in October is close, but now carries less competition risk.
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The 2026 gold line now runs through August, and the shape of it matters more than any single month. After the April spike to $476,000 and the May reset to $450,000, the county has spent four straight months in a $455,000-to-$462,000 band. That is not a market falling apart; it is a market that found its clearing price and has stayed there. August lands at approximately $462,000 on a blended resale basis — Zillow’s median sale price for Maricopa County came in at $467,667 through August 31, Cromford-derived data put the August median at $445,500, and Redfin’s three-month rolling figure sat near $474,603. The official Phoenix REALTORS number of $499,990 sits well above all of those because it includes new construction and the luxury tier, and it is the figure to quote when you want the county-wide headline rather than a comp for a typical resale. Worth noting: Phoenix REALTORS reported that county median as flat year over year, while Zillow’s home value index for the county eased 1.0% to $456,252. Flat-to-slightly-down is the honest summary. The reason sellers should care less about the exact number and more about the band: when a market holds a $7,000-wide range for four months, buyers learn it. They know what the midpoint is, their agents know, and the appraisers know. Listing 5% above that band in this environment does not start a negotiation — it starts a countdown. Price inside the band and you are competing on condition and presentation, which is where a prepared seller actually wins.